Panasonic’s first 3DTV hits the market this week in Best Buy stores.

LG 3DTVs are coming in May. Vizio models will start selling in August.

Sony is set to debut its first 3D television in June. It’s a 46-inch display that will retail for $3,875.

Bluray players capable of playing three-dimensions are coming. Sony’s PlayStation 3 can support 3D Bluray discs now.

Three-dimensional video games are coming.

Discovery Channel is working on a 3D TV network. So is ESPN.

Starting to feel pretty close to critical mass, no?

Don’t mistake the fledgling, aspirational three-dimensional attempt at new TV revenues with the mainstream adoption of HDTVs. People will not jump on 3DTVs with nearly the same energy. Mainstream penetration is only possible:

• When prices fall. I can get a good 46-inch HDTV with a crystal clear picture today for $700. The 3D model costs five times that.
• When content skyrockets. Nightly programming on non-premium channels will be necessary.
• When people feel they are missing something by not having a 3DTV, they will buy one. When the SuperBowl is broadcast in 3D, with players flying around your living room, and ball zipping past your nose. When Gweneth Paltrow walks past your coffee table on the 3D Oscars telecast. That’s when people will adopt 3DTVs en masse.

High definition TVs only caught on when all of the above occurred. They became affordable. Our local network channels started broadcasting in HD — for free, over-the-air. And the tipping point came when our friends and neighbors started getting HDTVs. The instant you saw an HD picture, you knew what you were missing.

There’s no guarantee that 3DTVs will ever go mainstream. But the gathering manufacturer support and development is a very strong sign that at the very least, consumers will get to make a choice on whether 3DTVs hit the big time.

Most new technologies never make it this far.