I’ve been thinking about anticipating change lately. If you are prepared to act in advance of an expected change, you can be among the first to capitalize on it.

However, it occurs to me that we must also be able to predict changes that will not happen. I call this anticiating the status quo.

For exampe, years ago, I predicted that Internet-enabled refrigerators will not become a household item, despite the best efforts of the industry. I was right.

Today, I anticipate that 3DTVs will not catch on with mainstream consumers. My reasoning revolves around their high prices, a lack of 3D content, and the fact that the vast majority of consumers who would buy one have recently purchased a good HDTV. Therefore, in my world, as a consultant to consumer electronics makers, I would advise Sony that it’s making a big mistake by making 3DTVs the centerpiece of its future.

So when you think about reacting to upcoming changes, include anticipation of the status quo in your thinking and how you might react, leverage, and capitalize on it.